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After how many iterations can I shortcut the Delina, Wild Mage / Pixie

I’m playing at competitive rules enforcement with Delina, Wild Mage and Pixie Guide. If I attack with Delina, Wild Mage targeting Pixie Guide with the triggered ability, I’ll continue creating copies of Pixie Guide for as long as I successfully roll 15—20.

For my first roll, I’ll roll two dice and ignore the lowest roll from the Grant an Advantage ability. If I succeed on that roll, I’ll have an extra copy of Pixie Guide and roll again, but with three dice and ignoring the two lowest. As I continue to succeed, it will become more and more likely that I succeed:

Iterations Dice Rolled Approx. Prob. Success Approx. Aggregate P(Success)
1 2 51% 51%
2 3 66% 33%
3 4 76% 25%
4 5 83% 21%
5 6 88% 19%
6 7 92% 17%
7 8 96% 16%

As I continue to succeed, the probability of success approaches 100%, but is never certain. At any point during the combo, I can choose to stop as Delina, Wild Mage was errata’d to say “you may roll again”.

Normally in Magic, once you demonstrate a loop, you can normally shortcut it by saying that you’d repeat the iteration until you reach a desired result. However, at each iteration, the probability of success is not guaranteed. Since the loop is non-deterministic, it seems like I shouldn’t be able to shortcut it – I’m not able to definitively say where the game state will be after each iteration.

However, Toby Elliot (a level 5 judge who writes the Magic Tournament Rules and Infraction Procedure Guide for judges) spoke about the combo on Twitter saying:

“Once you hit a certain point, your opponent probably just concedes, so the question is mostly moot.

Beyond that, once you hit a point where the odds are basically 1, announce how many you’re making and stop. But your opponent already conceded.”

It seems like at after a certain number of iterations, I am able to shortcut this combo, as long as the odds are “basically 1”.

What is the number of iterations in which I can stop rolling handfuls of d20s and start shortcutting this combo to say something like “I make a number of Pixie Guides equal to twice your life total”?

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